Bitcoin is going to $40k?

The Data Behind Bitcoin’s Potential Cycle Bottom

Imagine purchasing a car that loses 60 percent of its value in a single year.

You would not want to hold it.

In fact, it would likely become the asset you are least interested in owning.

Now imagine governments, institutions, and influencers actively supporting it.
Would you reconsider buying it?

Still no?

That is exactly how most people will feel about Bitcoin this year.

Bitcoin is heading toward price levels no one believes are possible.

But why?

The 4.5-Year Cycle

Stock Market Cycle from the 90s

Wait. It looks familiar, but also different at the same time. What is this?

It is not Bitcoin. It is the US stock market in the 1990s.

Yes, everything moves in cycles. Every financial asset experiences bull and bear periods, and these cycles were defined long ago. They do not change much over time.

The stock market moves in approximately 54-month cycles.

Cycles are measured from bottom to bottom. Roughly every 4.5 years, a major bottom is formed. This bottom represents the best opportunity and the lowest price zone for the next four-year cycle.

I intentionally used a chart from the 1990s to show that the so-called four-year cycle theory did not start with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not unique in this regard. It simply follows the same cyclical behavior seen across financial markets.

Terms like supercycle, one million dollar Bitcoin, or hyperinflation are buzzwords designed to grab attention. Most often, they come from people with little to no real financial success.

2026 is a bear market year. Whether we like it or not, prices will move lower.

However, 2026 is also a year of opportunity. An opportunity to buy the bottom and not look back for the next four years.

Master, I don’t believe every asset moves in 4-year cycles…

Correct.

Not every asset follows a four-year cycle. For example, coffee moves in approximately three-year cycles.

Take a look at the last few coffee cycles.

Last 4 Coffee Cycles depicted in the chart

Coffee markets have existed since the 15th century. While no one talked about three-year cycles back then, they are clearly visible today when you analyze long-term charts on a monthly timeframe.

Not every cycle lasts exactly three years. It is completely normal for cycles to be slightly longer or shorter depending on macroeconomic, political, and monetary conditions.

Once you start feeling the cycles and using cycle indicators, investing becomes much easier.

You will still make mistakes on lower timeframes. You might underestimate or overestimate price targets. But from a cycle perspective, buying near cycle bottoms becomes almost self-explanatory.

Following daily, weekly, and monthly cycles becomes routine. The hardest part will not be analysis. It will be managing your emotions.

Emotions that push you to enter trades based on intraday noise.

It is always easier to invest during bull markets. Prices rise, and suddenly no explanation is needed.

But if you position yourself correctly during a bear market, you have already completed half of the work for the entire cycle.

What about Bitcoin? When can we expect a Cycle bottom?

Good news: this year.
Bad news: not yet.