Why this Is Not A Bottom
Too early to DCA? Too late to short?
Bottom? Or just another trap?
How can I be so confident that the $60,000 area is probably not the real bottom?
Why can’t Bitcoin simply rally from here, reclaim its all-time high next year, and continue toward $200,000+ in 2028?
To answer that, we first need to understand what actually defines a market bottom.
And no, I’m not talking about the 200-week Moving Average or miner capitulation.
Although, let’s start with the miners.
Mining Difficulty
I know, this is a strange-looking chart.
It shows Bitcoin’s price performance starting from each miner capitulation.
Every Bitcoin bear market has one thing in common. Eventually, the weakest miners throw in the towel.
When Bitcoin falls below their production costs, they switch off their machines, causing the network’s hash rate to decline.
With fewer miners competing for the same block rewards, the remaining miners receive a larger share of the rewards.
Roughly every two weeks, Bitcoin automatically adjusts its mining difficulty downward, making mining profitable again for the strongest participants.
This event is known as miner capitulation, and throughout Bitcoin’s history it has appeared remarkably close to major market bottoms.
The chart above aligns every Bitcoin cycle from the exact moment mining difficulty reached its local bottom, shown by the blue dots.
From that point onward, you can see how Bitcoin behaved during every previous cycle. The colors simply represent the passage of time, starting with blue immediately after capitulation and gradually transitioning to red later in the cycle.
Miner capitulation is not a crystal ball, but it has consistently signaled that the worst selling pressure is likely behind us and that a new accumulation phase is beginning.
If history continues to rhyme, watching mining difficulty reach its bottom remains one of the strongest on-chain signals that Bitcoin is transitioning from fear toward recovery.
Today, however, we are already in the red zone. Historically, this stage has often preceded one final capitulation, followed by an accumulation zone.
Great... but won't the Cycles show the bottom?
Absolutely.
Each green stripe, together with the single orange one, marks a 4-Year Cycle bottom, the period when Bitcoin reached its lowest point of the cycle before entering its next major bull market.
2015
The 2015 bottom was unique.
Bitcoin actually formed two bottoms.
The first capitulation occurred in January, sending the price to around $150. Several months later, price revisited almost the exact same level, creating a classic double bottom.
Interestingly, the second time, the 2-Week Cycle never even dropped below 20. It reversed before reaching oversold territory, showing remarkable underlying strength.
2018
The 2018 bear market produced a much cleaner bottom.
Bitcoin experienced a true capitulation event, losing roughly 50% in a single month while both the 2-Week and 1-Month Cycles reached their lows.
From there, Bitcoin barely looked back. Over the following six months, the market printed almost nothing but green candles before recovering to its pre-crash levels.
2022
The 2022 bottom was even more fascinating.
Bitcoin initially fell to around $18,000, convincing many investors that the bottom was already in. Both the 2-Week and 1-Month Cycles suggested exactly that, and smart money quietly began accumulating.
Then came the FTX collapse.
The exchange’s bankruptcy pushed Bitcoin only 11% below the previous low, creating what felt more like a forced liquidation than a natural bear market decline.
By that point, the 1-Month Cycle had already turned higher, while the 2-Week Cycle only briefly touched 20 before Bitcoin entered another powerful uptrend.
Master, what does today look like?
The current situation follows previous Cycles perfectly:
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