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Crypto is entering its first high-probability Buy Zone since April
It’s the first day of June.
And for Cycle investors, it’s a reminder that it’s time to start looking for long positions and spot entries in Crypto once again.
If you’ve been following previous editions, you already know what we did throughout May: we shorted.
We shorted ETH. We briefly shorted HYPE (briefly). And we patiently waited for Bitcoin to fall back into the 60-Day Cycle accumulation zone.
The reason was simple.
The Cycle Indicators were warning us weeks in advance that May would likely be a bearish month, while June was setting up to become bullish once again.
And now that setup is finally arriving.
Yes, consider this your wake-up call.
The market is moving back into a zone where risk is declining and opportunity is increasing. It is time to start building a watchlist, preparing entries, and looking for the next wave of trades - tonight.
But before we talk about where Bitcoin and Crypto could be heading next, let’s first understand what happened in May and why the entire move was surprisingly predictable.
The Current State of the Cycles
To understand what comes next and to validate the blue arrow projection we drew nearly a month ago, we need to break down every Cycle Indicator individually.
The 1-Day Cycle is relatively straightforward.
The blue line is sitting around 20, indicating that the market is becoming short-term oversold. Historically, Bitcoin trading below $72k within this setup has offered attractive short-term buying opportunities.
The 3-Day Cycle - represented by the pink line and responsible for trends lasting several weeks has been declining since the local top formed at the beginning of May.
It has now reached “4”, an extremely oversold reading that suggests the market is approaching a point where a reversal higher becomes increasingly likely.
Mid-term outlook: Oversold.
The 1-Week Cycle, represented by the red line, is where things become more interesting.
This Cycle tracks the larger trend and is currently the most important risk factor. It clearly confirmed a local top at the beginning of May and has been declining ever since. Could it reverse higher from here? Possibly.
But we’ll come back to that shortly.
Then we arrive at the king of all indicators:
The 2-Week Cycle.
This is the Cycle responsible for some of the highest-probability trades and the largest moves throughout the market.
Right now it remains above 80.
In plain English, it is telling us that a major Cycle top is likely to form within the next 3-5 weeks.
That’s a message we cannot afford to ignore.
"I understand that I understand nothing."
One of the most beautiful aspects of investing is learning that not all Cycles carry the same weight.
The goal is not to predict every move.
The goal is to understand which Cycle is in control and position yourself when the risk-to-reward ratio becomes heavily skewed in your favor.
Sometimes that means buying aggressively.
Sometimes it means reducing position size and waiting for confirmation.
To properly assess today’s risk, we need to compare the current setup with similar Cycle structures from the past.
And that’s where things get interesting.
3rd of August 2025 - The Snake
Less than a year ago, we found ourselves in a remarkably similar situation.
The 2-Week Cycle was approaching a top.
Bitcoin had just completed a powerful rally that started in mid-June.
Momentum was fading.
Sentiment was becoming less optimistic.
At the same time, the shorter-term Cycles, particularly the 1-Day and 3-Day Cycles, were approaching oversold territory and preparing for another impulse higher.
What followed was a frustrating sequence of zig-zag moves.
The market produced two brief higher highs.
The first arrived near the end of August.
The second appeared at the beginning of October.
For many investors, those highs created the illusion that the bull market still had unlimited room to run.
In reality, they were simply the final wiggles before a much larger decline.
The best entry during that period occurred when the 1-Week Cycle dropped below 20 and aligned with a 1-Day Cycle bottom.
This remains one of the strongest Cycle setups available.
Maximum pessimism. Minimum risk. Explosive upside potential.
We also have to consider the larger 4-Year Cycle that Bitcoin was moving through at the time.
The summer of 2025 represented the third year of the Bull Market.
Historically, that is often the final stage before a major transition occurs.
Most investors expected a dramatic blow-off top followed by a devastating crash.
Instead, the market did what it does best: It disappointed the majority.
Bitcoin printed a handful of marginal new highs near the top of the 2-Week Cycle before quietly rolling over.
The Bear Market didn’t begin with panic.
It began with complacency.
Long before most participants realized what was happening.
31st December 2024 - The Hill
If you were around during the final weeks of 2024, you probably remember how suddenly everything started pumping.
The mood shifted almost overnight - speculation returned and money started flowing into every corner of the market.
This was the period when AI agents began dominating leaderboards and projects discovered that adding “AI” to a website could instantly attract attention.
Even the weakest altcoins suddenly found new life.
Assets that had spent most of the year bleeding lower started posting impressive gains.
ETH, which had previously fallen from $4k to $2k, managed to recover back toward $4k and rewarded patient investors (or allowed to close bad positions at break even).
This entire move was driven by the 2-Week Cycle.
After spending months trending lower since March 2024, the Cycle finally created the conditions necessary for a significant rally.
The setup shares many similarities with what we have today:
Bitcoin rallied aggressively - momentum accelerated - then, a correction followed.
At the time, BTC was trading around $82k while both the 1-Day and 3-Day Cycles were forming bottoms.
The market was preparing for another push higher.
But this rally unfolded in a more structured fashion:
First came a quick move into a 1-Day Cycle peak.
Then a pullback.
Then a much more controlled ascent into a 3-Day Cycle high.
That final push created another local top.
The market eventually rolled over, aided by Trump’s tariff headlines, and prices fell sharply.
ETH ultimately dropped as low as $1,400 before finding meaningful demand.
When I compare that period with today, I see more similarities than differences.
Both environments suggest roughly three weeks of upside potential.
Both point toward the possibility of another local top.
And both suggest that downside pressure will return afterward.
However, the key difference is clear - the 2024 setup occurred during the second year of a clear Bull Market.
We are not in a Bull Market anymore.
Are we going to repeat the same pattern?
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